Researchers at the University of York have tested a new method for analyzing historical events by comparing statistics about their components. To demonstrate its effectiveness, they presented alternative options for the outcome of the May-October 1940 military campaign, called the "Battle of Britain". Calculations convincingly show that the British were saved by a miracle and monstrous mistakes of the German command.
Some materials about the "Battle of Britain" are still classified, so it is impossible to say with certainty what exactly prevented Hitler from winning it. It is known that at the beginning of the summer, after the Dunkirk operation, the Germans had at their disposal the entire Atlantic coast of France, dozens of convenient airfields and ports. Germany has a clear superiority in aviation, and "wolf packs" of submarines are raging at sea, isolating the British Isles. It is still a long time before the war with the USSR, all forces are concentrated on the Western Front.
A technique called "weighted bootstrapping" involves assigning dynamic "weights", probability indices for events that change as they occur. Let's say the Luftwaffe abandoned the propaganda bombing of London and focused entirely on the destruction of the British Air Force. Then the forecast shows that by the middle of the summer all British airfields would have been destroyed, and by the end of the summer its aviation was actually taken out of the game.
In real history, the forces of the Luftwaffe were dispersed among many missions and targets, so the British had a 50% chance of winning. According to other estimates, even 98%, but modeling has shown that with a less emotional and more cool-headed use of Luftwaffe forces, they fall to 10% and 34%, respectively. This allows you to rethink the importance of historical events, to see the true value of decisions made and mistakes made. Obviously, a lot of them were done by the Germans - but this was provided that they really intended to win the "Battle of Britain" and land on the islands, and did not implement any other plans.