In April 2017, Elon Musk announced that his company Neuralink will create technology for the treatment of brain injuries by 2021. Two years earlier, he also promised to bring Tesla's capitalization to the level of Apple, which was then worth $ 700 billion. And plans were also voiced to transport a million colonists to Mars within a century and build a mini-submarine in two days to rescue teenagers from a flooded Thai cave. And the Metaculus community is committed to helping people understand that Musk's predictions are really close to becoming reality.
If Elon Musk was just doing projects, there would be no questions. However, in the light of recent events, important NASA programs are already beginning to depend on the success of SpaceX, and millions of dollars in investments in the still unprofitable Tesla threaten to turn into a financial crisis. Therefore, the avid techies and pragmatists from "Metaculus" decided to systematize Musk's promises and give them their collective assessment. For future investors and for history.
So far, the project has 9 successful assessments and 3 failures. These include, for example, only 30% of the belief that a tweet about the privatization of Tesla will cause a scandal, but in fact there were two federal investigations. Experts were also mistaken in assessing the success of landing the first stage of the Falcon 9 rocket on a barge by March 2016, and they also misjudged Tesla's chances of making at least some profit in Q3 2018.
But the 9% estimate that Musk's submarine would not be useful in rescuing Thai teenagers turned out to be absolutely correct.
Also, in 2017, he announced that in two years, robot cars will be so safe that they can sleep in them. In fact, the number of accidents involving drones is only growing, which makes Musk's prediction quite incredible. And just 7% of Metaculus experts agree with Tesla's ability to become the world's largest car manufacturer by 2035.
Now 13 big predictions from Elon Musk are under consideration. The first and foremost one is that a man's flight to Mars will become a reality from day to day. In Metaculus, only 43% of experts believe that humans will learn to survive in deep space by at least 2100, and according to Musk, by that time we should already have built cities on Mars for the third wave of colonists. Time will tell whether this forecast of one of the main visionaries of our time will come true.