By 2021, transistors will stop shrinking

According to the latest report presenting the International Semiconductor Technological Development Map, the size of transistors will stabilize by 2021, that is, will stop decreasing in size. This clearly contradicts Moore's Law, which states that the density of transistors on an integrated circuit chip doubles every 2 years.

A legitimate question arises, why suddenly the authors of the report, not fearing to be trapped in terms of scientific and technological progress, started talking about this? As it turned out, the changed economic situation in the world made the development of smaller transistors unprofitable for manufacturing companies. Now, instead of placing transistors in a horizontal plane, they will be stacked on top of each other, thereby increasing their density anyway.

A similar configuration can be achieved using 3D technologies, which completely refutes the forecasts of the previous report from 2014, where miniaturization was supposed to be extended until at least 2028. The pivot to new technologies is already being embodied in memory production.

What about Moore's Law? This question is answered by one of the main developers of the report, Paolo Gargini:

“There are several interpretations of Moore's Law in the media, but its essence remains the same: every 2 years the number of transistors doubles. Another question is how this is achieved - in the old fashioned way on one plane or in a "column".